Asian Journal of Criminal Justice and Forensic Studies

This study aimed to develop adapted forensic-psychological approaches for terrorism risk assessment in Central and South Asia, considering the region’s specificities and threat dynamics. The methodology was based on a theoretical analysis of secondary data, including global terrorism reports and official legislative documents from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. The primary methods were trend observation, activity product analysis, and comparative legal method. The results indicated that the region’s terrorist landscape is transforming from hierarchical structures to decentralised networks and individual actors, posing significant challenges. It was established that South Asia, particularly Pakistan, continues to demonstrate a high level of terrorist activity, whereas Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan face growing, albeit still low, risks. It was recorded that in 2024, Pakistan experienced a more than twofold increase in the number of terrorist attacks, from 517 to 1,099 incidents, and the number of fatalities increased by 45%, from 748 to 1,081. Significant gaps were also identified in understanding the psychological criminogenic factors of radicalisation and recidivism, and existing Western risk assessment models require adaptation to the local socio-cultural context. In this regard, adapted forensic-psychological approaches were developed, accounting for cultural sensitivity, religious specificity, behavioural indicators, psychosocial factors, language barriers, legislative context, and the integration of artificial intelligence for accurate risk assessment in Central and South Asia. The practical value of the study lies in the potential for its results to be used by law enforcement agencies, security services, and judicial institutions to enhance terrorism risk assessment methodologies. The developed approaches can serve as a basis for creating training programmes for psychologist practitioners working in the field of counter-terrorism, as well as for developing national strategies for countering radicalisation and reintegration programmes for former combatants

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